Leaderboard
| Forecaster | Resolved | Avg Brier |
|---|
All calls
Bars show each forecaster's probability that the answer is YES. After resolution, the small number is the Brier score (lower is better) and ★ marks the best call.
Method
Every model gets the same prompt in a fresh chat, on the same day, with no market odds:
Brier score = (forecast − outcome)². 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what you get by always saying 50%, 1 is fully wrong. Right side counts calls where the forecaster was above 50% and it happened, or at 50% or below and it didn't.
You are a calibrated forecaster. Question: "<question>" Today is <date>. Do NOT look up market or bookmaker odds. Give: (1) a single probability 0-100% that the answer is YES; (2) the 3 strongest reasons; (3) one thing that would change your mind. Be decisive, no ranges.
The market number is the Polymarket or Kalshi price for the same question at the time of the call. Screenshots of every answer are in the reply under each call post on X.Brier score = (forecast − outcome)². 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what you get by always saying 50%, 1 is fully wrong. Right side counts calls where the forecaster was above 50% and it happened, or at 50% or below and it didn't.